Ciclon tropical Asma al Sur de la India

545
wtxs31 pgtw 200900
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 01s (asma) warning nr 008
01 active tropical cyclone in southio
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
200600z --- near 12.5s 61.7e
movement past six hours - 250 degrees at 08 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
025 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 12.5s 61.7e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
201800z --- 12.8s 60.1e
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
025 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 265 deg/ 09 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
210600z --- 12.9s 58.2e
Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
060 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 265 deg/ 12 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
211800z --- 13.0s 55.8e
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 265 deg/ 13 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
220600z --- 13.2s 53.1e
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
---
remarks:
200900z position near 12.6s 61.3e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 01s (asma) located approximately 630 nm North-East of La Reunion, has tracked west-southwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours. The cyclone has intensified over the past 12 hours after moving into a region of decreasing vertical wind shear and favor- able poleward outflow near the axis of an upper level ridge. Several recent microwave satellite images, including a 200202z SSMI pass, indicate that a low level eye has developed despite a loss of deep
convection near the low level circulation center (LLCC). Based on the consolidated low level structure and Dvorak T-numbers of 3.5 from knes and 3.0 from both pgtw and fmee, the current intensity estimate is set at 55 knots. Tc 01s will track generally westward over the next 48 hours under the steering influence of low to mid-
level subtropical ridging to the south. Good outflow aloft should allow tc 01s to intensify through the forecast period, although moderate vertical wind shear and passage across cooler water will likely limit this intensification to a slow rate. Maximum significant wave height at 200600z is 17 feet. Next warnings
at 202100z and 210900z.//